NC State doesn't have a great offense. Wilson looked great against Western Carolina but then he struggled mightily against UCF, a team that is not nearly as strong as Cincinnati. The Wolfpack will have to shut down the dynamic Cincy offense to win this game. The Bearcats can run the ball and pass it, and they have a dynamic QB in Collaros. If they can shut down Collaros, the Wolfpack will have a chance to win the game if they can score some points.
Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss and 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a SU win. The Bearcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. NC State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five September games and 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win. The over is 4-0 in Cincy's last four games following an ATS loss but the under is 8-1 in Cincy's last nine Thursday games. The over is 11-2 in NC State's last 13 games overall.
We like the Wolfpack to win a close game.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Sunday, September 12, 2010
BEST BET - San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Pick
San Diego Chargers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS), 10:20 p.m. EST, NFL Week One, Monday, September 13, 2010, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
By Scotty L of Predictem.com
Point Spread: SD –5/KC +5
Over/Under: 44.5
Week one features an AFC West matchup with old rivals San Diego Chargers visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The Chargers look to continue their excellent run in the regular season with their 12th straight win. Using the “watched water never boils” theory, maybe the lack of Super Bowl expectations will give way to a better Chargers postseason this season. The Chiefs look to rebound from an awful run that has seen them notch a measly 10 wins over the past 3 seasons.
While the Chargers do not have an infinite window in which to do great things, they still appear to be in that range. The postseason collapses notwithstanding, they have been one of the better teams in the AFC for a while now. Philip Rivers has blossomed into a big-time QB boasting of a lethal, multi-dimensional offense. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates are a pair of 1000-yard catchers who should have productive seasons again, assuming that Jackson ends up returning to the team. Either way, he will miss this game due to a suspension, but Malcolm Floyd is coming up too and he has the same huge size as Jackson, giving the Chargers a lot of options in the air.
With rookie Ryan Mathews expected to a get a bulk of the carries, we’ll have to see how he good he is. Considering the Chargers managed a potent offense during a drop in Tomlinson’s form, the rushing game shouldn’t be a problem—at least not a big enough one to affect the overall potency of this offense. Darren Sproles is still there to provide a boost from the backfield and on returns.
Under Ron Rivera, the Chargers defense came around, especially considering their horrid pass defense in the 2008 season. The pass rush and overall menace of Shaun Phillips anchors a linebacking crew that would only become better if Shawne Merriman rediscovers the form that made him a premier pass rusher before injuries diminished his form. A stellar linebacking crew with good depth can make up for a D-line that while strong at the top, is not very deep. Look for the secondary to continue making strides with veteran Quentin Jammer heading up a strong crew. Losing Cromartie might actually help. First-rounder Antoine Cason needs to continue developing and maybe some of the veterans acquired during the offseason can step up.
The Chiefs have some upside that could see them actually put up some W’s this year. If some things click into place, this is a team that can cover a lot of spreads this season. Charlie Weis figures to help, as his record as an offensive coordinator speaks for itself. Maybe he can help big-money QB Matt Cassel get the poison out this season. After distracting Larry Johnson was released midway through last season, Jamaal Charles really stepped up, almost putting together a 1000-yard season in limited time with almost 6 yards per carry. With 1000-yard rusher Thomas Jones coming from the Jets, the Chiefs should have a bang-‘em-up backfield. The ball catchers need to step up if they hope to distinguish themselves, particularly Dwayne Bowe—who needs to start living up to his billing.
Romeo Crennel takes over a defense that finished 30th last season. His leadership figures to help, but this squad should still experience its share of growing pains. They will need to improve their pass rush and stop the run more effectively to get out of the cellar of the AFC West this season and that secondary cannot afford another underachieving year of disappointment. If this defense starts performing, the Chiefs can surprise some people this season.
The Chargers crushed the Chiefs by 30 at Arrowhead last season. That probably won’t happen again, but the Chargers should be in command of this game. Being the first game of the season, the technical offense of San Diego might not be in full-flight, but Kansas City figures to struggle putting pressure on an offense that can get clicking quickly.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Spread: The Chiefs play hard for coach Todd Haley. The Kansas City fans are faithful and will be going nuts, always hopeful for a big season despite what is on paper. Their offense, honed during the offseason by Weis, will be better and that running back tandem of Charles and Jones should help keep the chains moving.
The defense will let them down in the end, as the Chargers offense gains increasing foothold as the game moves into the second half. A reasonably close game breaks open a bit late, as the Chargers put up a couple late touchdowns to cover the spread with ease. Take the Chargers minus the 5 points.
By Scotty L of Predictem.com
Point Spread: SD –5/KC +5
Over/Under: 44.5
Week one features an AFC West matchup with old rivals San Diego Chargers visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The Chargers look to continue their excellent run in the regular season with their 12th straight win. Using the “watched water never boils” theory, maybe the lack of Super Bowl expectations will give way to a better Chargers postseason this season. The Chiefs look to rebound from an awful run that has seen them notch a measly 10 wins over the past 3 seasons.
While the Chargers do not have an infinite window in which to do great things, they still appear to be in that range. The postseason collapses notwithstanding, they have been one of the better teams in the AFC for a while now. Philip Rivers has blossomed into a big-time QB boasting of a lethal, multi-dimensional offense. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates are a pair of 1000-yard catchers who should have productive seasons again, assuming that Jackson ends up returning to the team. Either way, he will miss this game due to a suspension, but Malcolm Floyd is coming up too and he has the same huge size as Jackson, giving the Chargers a lot of options in the air.
With rookie Ryan Mathews expected to a get a bulk of the carries, we’ll have to see how he good he is. Considering the Chargers managed a potent offense during a drop in Tomlinson’s form, the rushing game shouldn’t be a problem—at least not a big enough one to affect the overall potency of this offense. Darren Sproles is still there to provide a boost from the backfield and on returns.
Under Ron Rivera, the Chargers defense came around, especially considering their horrid pass defense in the 2008 season. The pass rush and overall menace of Shaun Phillips anchors a linebacking crew that would only become better if Shawne Merriman rediscovers the form that made him a premier pass rusher before injuries diminished his form. A stellar linebacking crew with good depth can make up for a D-line that while strong at the top, is not very deep. Look for the secondary to continue making strides with veteran Quentin Jammer heading up a strong crew. Losing Cromartie might actually help. First-rounder Antoine Cason needs to continue developing and maybe some of the veterans acquired during the offseason can step up.
The Chiefs have some upside that could see them actually put up some W’s this year. If some things click into place, this is a team that can cover a lot of spreads this season. Charlie Weis figures to help, as his record as an offensive coordinator speaks for itself. Maybe he can help big-money QB Matt Cassel get the poison out this season. After distracting Larry Johnson was released midway through last season, Jamaal Charles really stepped up, almost putting together a 1000-yard season in limited time with almost 6 yards per carry. With 1000-yard rusher Thomas Jones coming from the Jets, the Chiefs should have a bang-‘em-up backfield. The ball catchers need to step up if they hope to distinguish themselves, particularly Dwayne Bowe—who needs to start living up to his billing.
Romeo Crennel takes over a defense that finished 30th last season. His leadership figures to help, but this squad should still experience its share of growing pains. They will need to improve their pass rush and stop the run more effectively to get out of the cellar of the AFC West this season and that secondary cannot afford another underachieving year of disappointment. If this defense starts performing, the Chiefs can surprise some people this season.
The Chargers crushed the Chiefs by 30 at Arrowhead last season. That probably won’t happen again, but the Chargers should be in command of this game. Being the first game of the season, the technical offense of San Diego might not be in full-flight, but Kansas City figures to struggle putting pressure on an offense that can get clicking quickly.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Spread: The Chiefs play hard for coach Todd Haley. The Kansas City fans are faithful and will be going nuts, always hopeful for a big season despite what is on paper. Their offense, honed during the offseason by Weis, will be better and that running back tandem of Charles and Jones should help keep the chains moving.
The defense will let them down in the end, as the Chargers offense gains increasing foothold as the game moves into the second half. A reasonably close game breaks open a bit late, as the Chargers put up a couple late touchdowns to cover the spread with ease. Take the Chargers minus the 5 points.
BEST BET - Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants Preview and Pick
Carolina Panthers (0-0, 0-0 ATS) at New York Giants (0-0, 0-0 ATS) NFL Week 1, Sunday September 12th, 1:00PM, Eastern New Meadowlands Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J
By Jay Horne of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Panthers +7/Giants -7
Over/Under: 41
Opening week in the NFL will be highlighted by an interesting battle when the New York Giants host the Carolina Panthers from New Meadowlands Stadium. The interesting aspect to this battle is the fact both teams are trying to rebound from very disappointing 2009 campaigns. The Giants failed to make the playoffs for the first time since QB Eli Manning's rookie season. The Panthers were favorites in the NFC South heading into 2009 before plummeting to a dismal 8-8 record while witnessing the end of the quarterback Jake Delhomme's era in Carolina. However, both teams look to rebound in 2010 and get back to challenging for an NFC Title run. Still, there are still lingering questions around both ball clubs that have yet to be answered.
The Giants biggest difference in 2009 disappointing run was the lack of running game on the offensive side of the ball and the non-existent pass rush on the defensive side of the ball. Running back Brandon Jacobs was hampered with a knee injury that many felt held him back most of the season. Jacobs totaled just 835 yards on the season and just 3.7 yards per carry. Also, Ahmad Bradshaw got his share of carries amidst Jacobs' struggles carrying the ball on the ground for 778 yards. However with Jacobs back to 100% entering 2010, all expectations point to Jacobs returning as the work horse for the Giants ground game. As for New York, they would definitely love to see the running attack get back to its dominating form from 2008 when they led the NFL in rushing.
If the Giants can get the ground game going then the offense may be extremely dangerous. Despite missing the playoffs, QB Eli Manning had career numbers with the help of some exploding young talent at the wide receiver positions. Manning completed 62.3% passing with 4021 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The young trio of wide outs Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, and Hakeem Nicks proved to be the most promising future for the Giants offense. The 3 standouts combined for over 2,800 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. WR Steve Smith led the team in receiving with 1,220 yards and 7 touchdowns. Considering the experience factor, most would assume all 3 wide outs to be even better heading into 2010 which is scary for any opposing defenses.
The other major problem the Giants had were the measly 32 total sacks amassed in 2009. The Giants defense could get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks which made the secondary look really bad throughout the season as well. The Giants brought in Antrel Rolle at the safety position and drafted DE Jason Pierre-Paul out of South Florida for the pass rush issues. Hopefully, they will fill some of the holes on defense for the Giants. The pass rush will definitely be the key to the game against the Panthers.
Delhomme was let go after 7 seasons starting at quarterback in Carolina. Matt Moore stepped in during the latter part of 2009 and showed some signs that he could perform. Moore completed 61.6% for 1053 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Also, Carolina drafted a promising quarterback in Jimmy Clausen out of Notre Dame. Clausen is a pro style quarterback with a lot of poise that is already familiar with pro style offensive schemes from his days under Charlie Weiss.
Clausen may find the playing field very early in the year because the Panthers are going to try to break him in quickly because he gives the biggest upside towards Carolina's future. Still whether Moore or Clausen starts, both quarterbacks will have to control the football and look to get the ball to WR Steve Smith. Smith was held to just 982 yards in his worse season in over 5 years last year. However, the reason for the decrease in number solely reflects the quarterback issues that were ongoing. If the quarterback situation gets under control, look for Smith to have a big season.
Still, the key to the Panthers offense will come from their ground game. Carolina running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both rushed for over 1,100 yards a piece last season as the most dangerous running duo in the league. No doubt the focal point for Coach John Fox will again be the ground game heading into an uncertain season. However, the questions still remain around he passing game and if it will be strong enough to make the Panthers a legitimate force in the NFC. On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers are missing their two biggest players from 2009. Julius Peppers departed to Chicago after being franchised by the Panthers in 2009. Also, linebacker Thomas Davis is out for half of the season with a tore ACL. DE Everette Brown will look to replace Peppers dominance on the defensive front. However with two big time losses on defense, it does not give promising hopes to the defense improving in 2010.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Spread: I believe the Giants will probably win this game straight up but that the Panthers will cover. The Carolina o-line is VASTLY underrated this year which will in turn provide one heck of a running game. Generally speaking, teams that are able to run the ball well win/cover. Take the Panthers plus the points.
By Jay Horne of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Panthers +7/Giants -7
Over/Under: 41
Opening week in the NFL will be highlighted by an interesting battle when the New York Giants host the Carolina Panthers from New Meadowlands Stadium. The interesting aspect to this battle is the fact both teams are trying to rebound from very disappointing 2009 campaigns. The Giants failed to make the playoffs for the first time since QB Eli Manning's rookie season. The Panthers were favorites in the NFC South heading into 2009 before plummeting to a dismal 8-8 record while witnessing the end of the quarterback Jake Delhomme's era in Carolina. However, both teams look to rebound in 2010 and get back to challenging for an NFC Title run. Still, there are still lingering questions around both ball clubs that have yet to be answered.
The Giants biggest difference in 2009 disappointing run was the lack of running game on the offensive side of the ball and the non-existent pass rush on the defensive side of the ball. Running back Brandon Jacobs was hampered with a knee injury that many felt held him back most of the season. Jacobs totaled just 835 yards on the season and just 3.7 yards per carry. Also, Ahmad Bradshaw got his share of carries amidst Jacobs' struggles carrying the ball on the ground for 778 yards. However with Jacobs back to 100% entering 2010, all expectations point to Jacobs returning as the work horse for the Giants ground game. As for New York, they would definitely love to see the running attack get back to its dominating form from 2008 when they led the NFL in rushing.
If the Giants can get the ground game going then the offense may be extremely dangerous. Despite missing the playoffs, QB Eli Manning had career numbers with the help of some exploding young talent at the wide receiver positions. Manning completed 62.3% passing with 4021 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The young trio of wide outs Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, and Hakeem Nicks proved to be the most promising future for the Giants offense. The 3 standouts combined for over 2,800 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. WR Steve Smith led the team in receiving with 1,220 yards and 7 touchdowns. Considering the experience factor, most would assume all 3 wide outs to be even better heading into 2010 which is scary for any opposing defenses.
The other major problem the Giants had were the measly 32 total sacks amassed in 2009. The Giants defense could get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks which made the secondary look really bad throughout the season as well. The Giants brought in Antrel Rolle at the safety position and drafted DE Jason Pierre-Paul out of South Florida for the pass rush issues. Hopefully, they will fill some of the holes on defense for the Giants. The pass rush will definitely be the key to the game against the Panthers.
Delhomme was let go after 7 seasons starting at quarterback in Carolina. Matt Moore stepped in during the latter part of 2009 and showed some signs that he could perform. Moore completed 61.6% for 1053 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Also, Carolina drafted a promising quarterback in Jimmy Clausen out of Notre Dame. Clausen is a pro style quarterback with a lot of poise that is already familiar with pro style offensive schemes from his days under Charlie Weiss.
Clausen may find the playing field very early in the year because the Panthers are going to try to break him in quickly because he gives the biggest upside towards Carolina's future. Still whether Moore or Clausen starts, both quarterbacks will have to control the football and look to get the ball to WR Steve Smith. Smith was held to just 982 yards in his worse season in over 5 years last year. However, the reason for the decrease in number solely reflects the quarterback issues that were ongoing. If the quarterback situation gets under control, look for Smith to have a big season.
Still, the key to the Panthers offense will come from their ground game. Carolina running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both rushed for over 1,100 yards a piece last season as the most dangerous running duo in the league. No doubt the focal point for Coach John Fox will again be the ground game heading into an uncertain season. However, the questions still remain around he passing game and if it will be strong enough to make the Panthers a legitimate force in the NFC. On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers are missing their two biggest players from 2009. Julius Peppers departed to Chicago after being franchised by the Panthers in 2009. Also, linebacker Thomas Davis is out for half of the season with a tore ACL. DE Everette Brown will look to replace Peppers dominance on the defensive front. However with two big time losses on defense, it does not give promising hopes to the defense improving in 2010.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Spread: I believe the Giants will probably win this game straight up but that the Panthers will cover. The Carolina o-line is VASTLY underrated this year which will in turn provide one heck of a running game. Generally speaking, teams that are able to run the ball well win/cover. Take the Panthers plus the points.
Friday, September 10, 2010
BEST BET - Georgia Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Point Spread and Pick
No. 23 Georgia Bulldogs (1-0, 1-0 ATS) at South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0, 1-0 ATS), Week 2 NCAA Football, Saturday September 11th, 12:00PM Eastern Williams-Brice Stadium Columbia, S.C
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper of Predictem.com
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper of Predictem.com
Point Spread: UGA +2.5/USC -2.5
Over/under: 47
Over/under: 47
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The biggest game in the SEC this week will take place at Williams-Brice Stadium when the South Carolina Gamecocks host the Georgia Bulldogs. South Carolina thumped Southern Miss in front of a nationally televised audience last week 41-13 while looking impressive on both sides of the ball. Georgia was also equally impressive in a big blow out win over Louisiana-Lafayette 55-7. The two teams now get their first major test of the season when the two SEC powers collide this Saturday afternoon. Considering how unimpressive Florida looked last week, the winner of this game will have a great start in the race for the SEC East.
The Gamecocks appeared to be clicking on offense last Thursday behind junior QBStephen Garcia. After a summer of criticism, Garcia rose to the challenge while completing 16 of 23 passing for 193 yards. Garcia also bulldozed his way for two scores on the ground as the Gamecocks dismantled the Golden Eagles defense all night. Perhaps if you watched the game last Thursday, then the youth of South Carolina may have been a standout. Sophomore WR Alshon Jeffery caught 7 passes for 106 yards and is quickly becoming a household name in the SEC.
Freshman running back Marcus Lattimore also had a solid opening debut carrying the ball 14 times for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns. Lattimore was listed as the nation's top running back out of high school last year and South Carolina fans are eager to see how he will progress this season. Another youngster that was impressive last week for the Gamecocks was freshman wide out Ace Sanders. Sanders does not possess an intimidating frame at just 5'7 and 165 pounds. However, Sanders showed some lightening quick speed with two receptions for 43 yards and another carry for 53 yards in the Gamecocks home opener. With so much talent at the skill positions for South Carolina, it is easy to see why expectations are so high.
The Gamecocks posted 449 yards of total offense with a very balanced attack. South Carolina split their offensive production right down the middle with 225 passing yards and 224 yards on the ground. However, the real test comes this Saturday against a much better defense from Georgia. The Bulldogs defense held teams to just 339 yards per game in 2009 and are stacked to be even better this season. South Carolina's biggest concern is how will the offensive line hold up against a better defensive rush? The Gamecocks surrendered 37 sacks in 2009 which was the 11th worse in the nation. While the South Carolina offensive line appeared improved last week, their first real test comes this Saturday. If the Gamecocks are to really challenge in the SEC this year, the offensive line must be better.
The Bulldogs on the other hand have a lot of similarities compared to the Gamecocks. Georgia has tons of talent at the skill positions on offense backed by a solid defense. WR A.J. Green is most likely the best receiver in the SEC and will make is expected to make his season debut after being held out of last week's contest due to an NCAA rules investigation. Green posted 53 receptions for 808 yards for the Bulldogs last season. While those numbers do not sound overly impressive, remember Georgia struggled severely throwing the football in 2009.
Freshman QB Aaron Murray hopes to answer all the concerns in the passing game. Murray looked fairly solid last week completing 17 of 26 passes for 160 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 pick last week. However, Murray will be one of those players under the microscope this week as we will eagerly wait to see how the freshman plays against a much better defensive group. The most important concern Georgia has concerning Murray is establishing ball security. In a game expected to be very close, turnovers will be key and that is where the concern lies with Murray.
Still, this game will likely be won in the trenches. Both teams will be looking to control the football and establish a running game. Let's face it time of possession may be critical and the offense that can keep the other off the field will have the advantage. South Carolina and Georgia have historically been hard fought games with 5 of the last 6 games being decided by last than 7 points. Considering what is on the table for both teams, another great battle is expected yet again.
Update: Georgia WR A.J Green is now listed as doubtful as NCAA rules investigations continue.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Spread: This game has been on my radar all summer and believe the lines are right where I expected with another predicted grudge match. In fact, the opening line favors South Carolina by 2.5 and odds makers are using that enticing line to lure in a lot of action on the Bulldogs while believing South Carolina will cover. I also just do not see Georgia staying with the Gamecocks all 4 quarters in this one. South Carolina has tons of weapons on offense that will score points even against solid defenses. While Georgia possesses the same in terms of talent, I believe the Gamecocks defense will rattle freshman QB Murray with all of the different looks that defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson brings. Consider this a big play with the Gamecocks.
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd Point Spread and Pick
No. 25 West Virginia Mountaineers (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), Week 2 NCAA Football, 7:00 p.m. EST, Friday, September 10, 2010, Edwards Stadium, Huntington, W.Va., TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: WVU -13/Marshall +13
Over/Under: TBA
Over/Under: TBA
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A skirmish for some in-state bragging rights will take place in primetime on ESPN Friday night when the 25th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers travel southwest to Huntington to take on the Marshall Thundering Herd in Edwards Stadium.
The Mountaineers won their opener last Saturday by a 31-0 score over Coastal Carolina, but don’t be deceived by the lopsided score because it was a less than impressive opener for the team from Morgantown. Ahead by only a 10-0 score at halftime, the Mountaineers played a sloppy game on offense (3 turnovers) but made it stand with a solid defensive effort against an overmatched team from Coastal Carolina.
Marshall was not as fortunate in their opener against Ohio State last Thursday, failing behind 35-0 before you could blink en route to a depressing 45-7 loss at the Horseshoe. There really wasn’t too much that went right for the Herd against the Buckeyes, but they will have the motivation of playing in their home opener on Friday on national television.
Another story line that could help to motivate the Herd into playing better in week two is the fact their new head coach, Doc Holliday, spent many years in Morgantown as the associate head coach, so there will be plenty of familiarity with the Mountaineers schemes and personnel.
The early line out of Las Vegas has West Virginia listed as 13-point favorites, but there are already a few online sportsbooks that have moved the point spread up to 13.5 in favor of the Mountaineers.
As of press time there has yet to be a total released.
As I mentioned earlier, the Mountaineers offense certainly looked raw and sloppy for some of their opener last week. Running back Noel Devine rushed for 111 yards and added a score, but his 4.8 yards per carry was a little low considering the lack of competition. Quarterback Geno Smith also finished with decent numbers (20-of-27, 216 yards and 2 TD), but he did throw an interception for one of the Mountaineers three turnovers.
But when compared to the rough day the Thundering Herd offense had against the Buckeyes, the Mountaineers numbers look like the run-n- shoot. With only 44 yards rushing on the ground, the Herd became one- dimensional in a hurry, although the Buckeyes forced them to play catch up and abandon the run by jumping out to a large lead.
The only points the Herd put on the board came via a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, not from the Marshall offense, so quarterback Brian Anderson and his teammates in the huddle will have to find a way to get into the end zone.
It’s hard to get a good picture of what type of defense the Herd will face from West Virginia, mainly because the Mountaineers defense was hardly challenged by the Coastal Carolina offense in the opener. The Mountaineers held them to 189 yards of total offense, forced three turnovers and stopped Coastal Carolina on 12 of their 14 third-down attempts during the game.
On paper you would think the Mountaineers would be able to repeat that performance against Marshall, but Marshall’s offense is certainly better than the boys from Coastal Carolina so you really are comparing apples to oranges.
Marshall’s defense was expected to be better than they looked against the Buckeyes, but they were gouged for 280 yards on the ground by Ohio State en route to giving up over 500 yards of total offense. You know that Devine and the Mountaineers offense will dissect the tape from that game and try to duplicate the success the Buckeyes had running the ball on Friday.
Last year in the first game of the home-and-home series between these two schools in Morgantown it ended with a 24-7 victory by West Virginia. Marshall only had 207 yards of total offense (58 yards on the ground on 34 attempts), and West Virginia finished with just 313 yards (3-for-13 on 3rd down), so it turned into a defensive contest with six turnovers overall in the game (Marshall 4, W.Va. 2).
At least the Thundering Herd led the game 7-3 at halftime, then eventually made bettors happy by covering the 20-point spread in the game. But with a lack of offense the game never even came close to the 51 points the total closed at for the game.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Spread: I don’t expect the Mountaineers to run for as many yards on the ground as the Buckeyes did against Marshall, but one could argue that Devine is a better runner than anyone on the Buckeyes team, so it could get ugly again for the Herd. I expect the same type of game as last year with Marshall playing well early, but eventually giving way to the superior Mountaineers at the end. Take West Virginia minus the 13 points.
Don't forget that we also cover all the Pro games each week! Find them here: NFL Picks.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints Point Spread and Pick
Minnesota Vikings (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS), Week 1 NFL, 8:30 p.m. EST, Thursday, September 9, 2010, Superdome, New Orleans, La., TV: NBC
by Badger of Predictem.com
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Vikings +4.5/Saints -4.5
Over/Under: 49
Over/Under: 49
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The National Football League opens up it’s 2010 regular season with a special Thursday Night Kickoff showdown on NBC featuring a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game when the Minnesota Vikings travel to the Superdome to play the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints.
Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees and the Saints will reunite on the field with the once-again unretired Brett Favre and the Vikings to give the NFL and NBC a studly opening night telecast, but Thursday night’s opener likely won’t compare to last January’s memorable matchup.
While Brees and the Saints appear to have picked up right where they left off, winning two of their first three preseason games and averaging over 32 points per game in doing so, the Vikings have not resembled the NFC North team that finished just an OT period short of the Super Bowl.
Minnesota was forced to wait for Favre’s annual will-he or won’t-he dramatics to start training camp, only to lose their best receiver Sidney Rice to a hip injury before the preseason was half over. Injuries along the once powerful Vikings offensive line is also causing problems too, problems that have the Vikings looking shaky and ill-prepared for the start of the regular season.
The early line out of Las Vegas has the defending champion Saints as 4.5-point favorites, but that number may rise in the week and a half leading up kickoff due to the Vikings injury issues.
The over/under total is currently listed at 49 and has yet to move significantly in either direction, which will likely happen as game time approaches, especially since these two teams combined for 59 at the end of January.
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Offensively there are very little questions surrounding the Saints, while the Vikings have nothing but questions to find answers too before the preseason ends.
New Orleans had the top-ranked offense in the league last year, led by a dominant passing game orchestrated by Brees. Brees was outstanding in his final preseason tune up, throwing for two scores and 240 yards in the Saints preseason week three victory over San Diego. The Saints will be without receiver Marques Colston to start the season (on PUP list), but with the rest of the supporting cast back the Saints have more than enough weapons to keep coach Sean Peyton’s offense rolling full steam.
Minnesota’s offense has looked bad in the preseason, and while the rustiness of Favre is less of a concern for the Vikings, injuries along the offensive line is starting to become a major worry. With guard Anthony Herrera playing center for the injured John Sullivan the Vikings missed a few protection checks in their last preseason tune up, with one of them causing Favre to get drilled from behind and fumble, so if Sullivan still can’t play versus the Saints (still questionable) it could get ugly.
A steady dose of Adrian Peterson could help to take pressure off of Favre, the O-line and the dinged up Viking receiving core, but at some point the Saints defense will find the weakness and attack with their ears pinned back just like they did to Favre in January.
Reflecting back to the NFC title game most people will remember the Saints defense for providing the blueprint for disrupting Favre’s timing with blitzes and overloads, but it was actually the Vikings defense that held the Saints to only 257 total yards and a sack and forced seven punts. With both defenses essentially the same this year (Darren Sharper is questionable), this game will come down to which team can repeat their defensive game plan from January.
The Vikings covered the point spread in the NFC title game, losing straight up by the field goal (31-28) in OT, but cashing in gambler’s tickets at the window as 4-point underdogs. The 59 point combined score also was cashed in before the overtime coin flip, since the final total closed at 54.
Both of those results are significant as far as betting trends go too, since the Vikings cover makes them a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Saints (since 2002); while the over also cashed in for the fifth time in a row for a perfect 5-0 in those same five games.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Spread: It's always dangerous to give preseason games too much weight when going into week one wagering, but based on what I’ve seen out of Minnesota I can’t even think about wagering on them right now. Some how, some way ole graybeard will get the Vikings some points, and you know Brees and the Saints are good for at least 35 to 40, so I’m playing safe in week one and taking the over of 49.
Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Point Spread and Pick
No. 22 Auburn Tigers (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-0, 1-0 ATS), Week 2 College Foots, Thursday September 9th, 7:30PM Eastern. Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, M.S.
By Jay Horne of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Aub -3/MSU +3
Over/under: TBA
Primetime SEC action gets underway this Thursday night when the no. 22 rankedAuburn Tigers travel to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The game marks the first contest between SEC opponents which of course has been the most prestigious conference in the nation over the past few years. The Auburn Tigers are poised to make a run in the SEC West this season, but many are waiting to see how they will stack up against a Bulldogs team that just completely demolished Memphis last week 49-7.
The Bulldogs are entering year number 2 under Dan Mullen (former Florida Gators offensive coordinator) and are continuously improving on both sides of the football. The Bulldogs put together some top notch performances against both Florida and LSU last season but fell just short of milestone type upsets. However, they will get their chance at scoring their biggest win under the Mullen era again this Thursday night.
Auburn is a team predicted by many to challenge Alabama in the west this season as they return a ton of talent at the skill positions. The Tigers are also in their 2nd season of a new era under Gene Chizik. Remember the Tigers were vastly improved at the end of last season and nearly knocked off Alabama in the season finale. The Tigers are led by QB Cam Newton who previously transferred over from the Florida Gators. Newton completed 9 of 14 passes for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns in last weeks' 52-26 victory over Arkansas State.
FAT BONUS ALERT! DEPOSIT $125 USING YOUR CHECKING ACCOUNT AND GET $125 FREE ATSPORTSINTERACTIONHowever, it was Newton's legs that really stood out as the dual threat quarterback also led the Tigers with another 171 yards on the ground for two additional touchdowns. Coach Gene Chizik actually called Newton's performance "the best I have ever witnessed." Now I'm sure that may be quite a stretch. However, Newton is still a guy that fits into offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's system perfectly and gives the Tigers plenty of dangerous approaches offensively. Outside of Newton, WR Darvin Adamsmay be the most skilled player on the team. Adams was rather quiet last week with just 2 catches for 58 yards, but expect him to be a much bigger factor as the season rolls along.
On defense, the Tigers still have some lingering concerns especially after cupcake Arkansas State managed to rack up 26 points. The concerns entering the season where in the Auburn secondary and that secondary was rattled last week as they gave up 323 passing yards against Arkansas State. Considering how well the Bulldogs offense spreads the ball around in the air, there has to be major concern for the Auburn pass defense. They must step up and play better. More importantly for the Tigers, they must get help from their talented defensive front. Auburn must be able to get pressure up front defensively allowing Bulldogs QB Tyler Russell minimum time to throw the football. If that happens the Tigers secondary may not have their backs turned all afternoon.
As for the Bulldogs, Russell completed 13 of 16 passing last week for 256 yards and 4 touchdowns. Six different receivers caught passes in the game while Brandon Heavens and Chad Bumphis both eclipsed the 100 yard receiving marks in the contest. Bumphis is the leader among the receivers but the entire receiving core has plenty of talent. Also, do not be surprised for QB Chris Relf to get into the quarterback rotation as well. Relf has improved his consistency throwing the football and gives a running threat when behind center as well. Despite which ever quarterback that gets the most snaps, they will both be looking to make some big plays against that questionable Auburn pass defense.
The Bulldogs defense is eerie similar to the Auburn defense. Pernell McPhee is the top pass rusher among a dominant defensive line. However, the Bulldogs defense also has concerns in the pass defense. If that is the case, Cam Newton could have another big game behind center for the Tigers. However with so much talent on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, fireworks could be expected when both teams battle in front of a nationally televised audience on Thursday night.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Spread: I'm staying away from the side here because I would not be surprised to see either team prevail. However, due to the offenses on the field do not be surprised to see a total get released near the 50 mark more closer to game time. If that happens, make a strong consideration on the under because SEC openers are historically lower scored games. While offensive sparks are expected, I see this one being more of a grudge match that goes back and forth. When that happens things will get conservative and keep scoring lower than expected
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